Without going into the nitty-gritty of the numbers manipulations, there are endless permutations on the behavior bias. For example, if we assume that the most sick and frail would opt for vaccination ahead of those that are hale and hearty, we would get the increase in mortality in the vaxed group. On the other hand, if those vaxed would feel over-confident in their protection and start behaving irresponsibly, the opposite would happen. The All-Cause-Mortality is an important signal that should alert the medical community and promote more insightful and stringent groups definition, as well as looking at the cause of death categories
Without going into the nitty-gritty of the numbers manipulations, there are endless permutations on the behavior bias. For example, if we assume that the most sick and frail would opt for vaccination ahead of those that are hale and hearty, we would get the increase in mortality in the vaxed group. On the other hand, if those vaxed would feel over-confident in their protection and start behaving irresponsibly, the opposite would happen. The All-Cause-Mortality is an important signal that should alert the medical community and promote more insightful and stringent groups definition, as well as looking at the cause of death categories